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The Good, the Bad, the Chalk, the Pivot and the Sleeper - BMW

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  • The Good, the Bad, the Chalk, the Pivot and the Sleeper - BMW

    The Good, The Bad, The Chalk, The Pivot & The Sleeper

    The Good:
    • Justin Thomas (DK $10800, FD $11700, 14/1) - JT had another average finish with a T49 at the NORTHERN TRUST. He had a tough time with the putter again but continues to be elite tee-to-green especially on approach, gaining an average of 8.6 strokes T2G on the field over the last 5 events, including a win at the St. Jude, while losing strokes putting. Putting is the most variable stat and I am going to continue to ride his elite ball striking skills.
    • Webb Simpson (DK $10100, FD $11300, 20/1) - Webb Simpson continues to play well even at courses that really don’t suit his style of play like TPC Boston. Despite not being long off the tee, the rest of his game is elite and gaining strokes on the field everywhere else including putting. I suspect another good week for Webb.

    The Bad:
    • Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10600, FD $11600, 14/1) - Since his win at the Rocket Mortgage, he has been steadily declining with his approach shots losing an average of 2.9 strokes to the field in his last five starts. He has made the cut 2 out of his last 4 starts and was terrible putting at TPC Boston. After watching the flyovers of Olympia Fields, this is not a bomb and gouge type course which takes away Bryson’s best skill. He’s fade for me.

    The Chalk:
    • Daniel Berger (DK $9700, FD $11200, 22/1) - Berger has been the best golfer statistically since the restart. He has only one MC in 6 starts and has 4 top 3s and a win in those 6 starts. He has gained an average of 2.4 strokes total in his last 24 rounds which is more than Dustin Johnson (2.0 strokes total), DeChambeau (1.8 strokes) and Justin Thomas (1.7 strokes). He has found an enormous amount of consistency and confidence. I see it continuing. This is good chalk.

    The Pivot:
    • Jason Day (DK $9200, FD $10900, 25/1) from Berger. Day unfortunately MC’d last week and, hopefully, left a bad taste in people’s mouth. Before the MC, he was on an amazing streak of four straight top 7s. He finally found his iron play and was on point with his approach shots. During that stretch, he gained an average of 7.25 strokes T2G. His short game is always good. I think this is a good bounce back spot for Day with lower ownership.

    The Sleeper:
    • Kevin Na (DK $7300, FD $8200, 175/1) - Na has had a bit of a roller coaster ride since the restart missing the cut in 2 of 6 starts, but he has two top 9s and finished T39 last week. He is great with his irons and putts well on bentgrass. He will likely fly under radar in this 7k range with Henley ($7800), Palmer ($7600), and Hubbard ($7000) taking most of the ownership in this range.