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JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Genesis Open 2019


  • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Genesis Open 2019


    “Everybody can see that my swing is homegrown. That means everybody has a chance to do it.” -Bubba Watson


    Last Tournament Brief Recap - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2019

    My Picks
    Golfer Position DK Pts Value (Pt/$)*1000
    J.Day T4 101.0 9.3
    K.Streelman T7 90.5 12.4
    R.Knox T14 75.5 9.3
    C.Reavie T38 75.5 8.4
    N.Watney MC (T91) 50.0 6.4
    B.Snedeker MC (T110) 40 4.9
    Cumulative Picks (18-19 Season) - Tournaments - 9, #Picks - 54, Winner - 2, Top 5 - 12(22.22%), Top 10 - 16 (29.63%), Top 25 - 27 (50.00%), Made Cut - 43(79.67%).

    The Course - Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, CA

    We continue our California tour portion of the PGA Tour at one the most iconic courses in the US, Riviera Country Club, located in Pacific Palisades, a small community in LA County. Originally designed by George Thomas and opened in 1927, Riviera has had a distinguished history serving as host for the US Open in 1948, the PGA Championships in 1983 and 1995, the US Senior Open Championship in 1998, the Genesis Open annually (formally known as the Northern Trust Open) and is scheduled to host the summer Olympics in 2028. It did get several renovations over the years with Ben Crenshaw doing some work on the bunkers in the 1990s and Tom Fazio giving the 8th hole and bunkers a bit of a facelift.

    The hole breakdowns are as follows:
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 1
    Par 4 400-450 4
    Par 4 450-500 6
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 3
    Total 18
    Course Data (2018)

    Course Data by Par (2018)

    Course Stats
    • Par 71
    • 7,322 yards
    • Architect - George C. Thomas
    • Greens - 5000 sq. ft. (small greens), Poa annua (Stimpmeter 12.0 - 12.5, fast)
    • Difficulty (+ 0.759 RTP, Ranked 9th of 51 courses played in 2018, difficult)
    • Consistently ranked a top 50 golf course in the world and top 25 courses in the US
    • Often referred to as “Hogan’s Alley” after having an implausible run of three victories in an 18-month span including two Los Angeles Opens and a US Open sandwiched in between
    • It will be the host to the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles

    Observed Stat Trends - 2018
    • Last year the course played 0.76 strokes under par significantly more difficult than 2017
    • The three par 5s are essential to score on as they played as the easiest holes on the course last year and played a combined 1.3 strokes under par and average birdie rate of 44%. In addition, 38 of 42 eagles were scored on these three holes.
    • There are no par 4s above 500 yards with six of them falling between 450-500 yards. However, all of them played over par were some of the most difficult holes on the course. Nearly 25% of shots on these holes resulted in a bogey or worse while the birdie rate only 8%. The shorter par 4s either played at par or slightly above par last year.
    • There are four par 3s which also played near par or above par. Only hole 6 played slightly under par last year (-0.011).

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Full field event with 144 professionals
    • Cut at 70 (plus ties). Since 2015, cut has ranged between +1 and +4 (avg. +2)
    • Winning scores since 2015 range -17 to -6 (avg. -13)
    • Winners since 2015 (in order: Hahn, Watson, D. Johnson, Watson)

    Key Holes
    • Easiest Hole - Hole 1 (par 5, 503 yards), (-0.716 RTP, Birdie % - 59.86%)

    This tee box is elevated off the fairway some 75 feet so golfers can really set themselves up for a birdie or even an eagle. The fairways are narrow, however, and with out-of-bounds to the left and trees on the right, a bad tee shot could mean trouble.
    • Toughest Hole - Hole 12 (Par 4, 479 yards), (+0.362 RTP, Bogey % - 30.96%)

    The site of “Bogey’s Tree,” named after the actor Humphrey Bogart, this hole is quite difficult as there is a prevailing wind off the sea. The narrow green is protected on the right by one of the deepest bunkers on the course while Bogey’s Tree protects the left.

    Closing Hole - Hole 18 (Par 4, 475 yards), (+0.179 RTP, Bogey % - 22.71%)

    This legendary hole is made famous by its semi-blind tee shot to a fairway hidden beyond a steep hillside. The approach shot will need a mid-to-long iron to a bunkerless green in the shadow of the clubhouse just above. A great finishing hole.

    My Picks

    DK - Above 10k

    Dustin Johnson (DK $11400, FD $12000, Y $49, Odds 9/1) - Despite a ho-hum performance last week, DJ still commands top salary. Elite course history in the last five starts at Riviera including a win, two runner-ups, a T4 and a T16. Current form is superb despite the poor performance last week including a win in Saudi Arabia two weeks ago. Don’t really have to discuss his skills since he ranks 1st in this field in almost every I’m considering. He can obviously win.

    DK - 9k

    Xander Schauffele (DK $9400, FD $11200, Y $42, Odds 22/1) - Xander has been a tear as of late making 10 straight cuts including a win at the TOC and WGC - HSBC. Also, he has been averaging 99 DK points in the last 12 weeks. He has only played Riviera last year but finished T9. He is solid all around golfer who can handle the par 4s and par 5s. Should be able to content again this year.

    DK - 8k

    Paul Casey (DK $8800, FD $11000, Y $37, Odds, 30/1) - Casey had a hard time on Sunday who started the day as the leader but fell short with a solo 2nd on Monday morning. Otherwise, he continues to play well despite his shortfall on Sundays. He has made four straight cuts at Riviera since 2015 including a T2 in 2015 and has been very consistent averaging a 70.3 per round in 16 rounds. He has been averaging 81.9 DK points in the last 12 weeks which will easily help your cash lineups.

    Matt Kuchar (DK $8500, FD $10300, Y $35, Odds 42/1) - Yes you can get the FeDEx Cup leader, winner of two events and three top 10s in six events for near average salary. Kuch has joined the circle of recent veteran golf winners (Phil, Tiger to name a few). Kuch has made three straight cuts at Riviera including a T8 in 2016. He has been averaging 99.6 DK points in the last 12 weeks. Don’t over think Kuch.

    DK - 7k and Under

    Jason Kokrak (DK $7600, FD $9200, Y $27, Odds 80/1) - Kokrak has been playing very well lately and is on a 12 consecutive made cut streak including 6 top 20s. In the last 12 weeks he has been averaging 81.7 DK points easily paying off his salary. He has made 4 straight cuts in five starts at Riviera with an average score of 70.1 per round. He is awesome T2G and can handle the par 5s and par 4s.

    Martin Laird (DK $7600, FD $9400, Y $20, Odds 90/1) - The Scotsman had a lackluster Sunday last week with a T60 finish but could be to our benefit of lower ownership this week. He has been very consistent at Riviera making four cuts on four starts since 2014 with an average score of 8.9 per round. He has has three top 11s in his last three starts and has averaged 80.5 DK points through that range. He doesn’t stand out in any stat category but still ranks in the top third in this field. He should be able to return another 80+ DK points and make value.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!

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