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JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview & Picks for the RBC Heritage 2019

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  • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview & Picks for the RBC Heritage 2019




    JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


    "Of all of the hazards, fear is the worst." - Sam Snead



    PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE RBC HERITAGE 2019 The Course - Harbour Town Golf Links

    This week, the PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head, South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. It is considered to be one of the finest shot-making courses in the country and is very demanding off the tee. Harbour Town is a 7101 yard, par-71 course with four par 3s and three par 5s.

    Hole breakdown is as follows:
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 2
    Par 4 400-450 5
    Par 4 450-500 4
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 3
    Total 18

    Course Data (2018)



    Course Data by Par (2018)



    Course Stats
    • Par 71
    • 7,099 yards
    • Architect(s) - Pete Dye (1969)
    • Greens - 3,700 sq. ft. (Very small greens, smallest on tour), Tif-Eagle Bermuda (Stimpmeter 11-11.5 , slower than average)
    • Tees, Fairways & Rough - Celebration Bermuda
    • Difficulty (-0.153 RTP, Ranked 19th of 51 courses played in 2018; -0.324 RTP, 29th of 50 in 2017; +1.285 RTP, 8th of 50 in 2016), average difficulty
    • 54 sand bunkers
    • 12 water hazards

    Observed Stat Trends - 2018
    • Last year the course played -0.153 strokes RTP, average
    • The three par 5s were some of the easiest holes on the course combining for -1.002 strokes RTP and an average BoB% of 42.7%. 23 of the 27 eagles scored last year were obtained on the par 5s.
    • There are two par 4s under 400 yards. Hole 9 played as the 3rd easiest hole last year playing -0.257 RTP. In contrast, hole 13 played slightly over par +0.026 RTP. All of the longer par 4s between 450-500 yards all played over par combining for +0.488 RTP. Hole 3 was the toughest hole on the course playing +0.204 RTP. The remaining five par 4s between 400-450 yards combined for +.143 RTP.
    • All of the par 3s played over par combining for +0.452 RTP.

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Standard event with about 130 golfers
    • Field Strength - Average
    • Standard cut of 70 plus ties. Since 2012, cut has ranged between 0 and +5 (avg. +2.4)
    • Winning scores since 2012 range -18 to -9 (avg. -12.3)
    • Winners since 2012 (in order:Pettersson, McDowell, Kuchar, Furyk, Grace, Bryan, Kodaira)

    DK Data 2018
    • Avg Cash Line (GPP - 436.62, AVR 8.73; Cash - 425.50, AVR 8.51)
    • Optimal LU - 625 DK Pts @ 47.8k (AVR 13.08)
    • Winning LUs
      • Qtr Jukebox - 591.5 DK Pts @ 50.0k (AVR 11.83)
      • 40k Albatross ($12 Buy-in, SE) - 549.5 DK Pts @ 49.1k (AVR 11.19)
      • 500k Drive the Green ($5, ME) - 585.5 DK Pts @ 49.9k (AVR 11.73)
      • $5 SE Double Up - Cashline, 406 (AVR 8.12)
      • $5 ME Double Up -Cashline, 410 (AVR 8.20)


    Hole Highlights

    Hole 9 - Par 4, 332 yards (-0.257 RTP, Rank 16, 2018)



    This is a short but tricky par 4. Golfers will need to drive to the middle of the fairway. Then they will need to avoid the trees with their approach shot onto a heart-shaped green protected by a large bunker in the front and three smaller bunkers in the back. Birdie rate here was around 34% last year, so this is a good opportunity to gain a stroke on the field.

    Hole 3 - Par 4, 469 yards (2018: +0.204 RTP, Rank 1)



    This mid-length par 4 requires a straight shot off the tee between the thick trees that line the narrow fairway. A medium to short iron will be needed to get onto the small green but is well protected by a large bunker in the front of the green and three additional smaller bunkers on the right. This hole played 0.204 strokes over par on average with a BoW rate of 25.9% of shots on this hole last year. Par is a good score here.

    Hole 18 - Par 4, 472 yards (2018: +0.034 RTP, Rank 9)



    Hole 18 is probably the most recognizable and beautiful hole at HTGL with the Harbour Town lighthouse in the background and the Calibouge Sound on the left. The fairway is wide off the tee but narrows as the marshes fill in on the left. Landing on the left onto the area jutting into the Calibouge Sound will leave a shorter approach shot but risk a their shot falling into the hazard left of the green. Golfers who prefer the right side will have a longer approach shot but a better shot at the green without the risk of the hazard. Either way, it is a spectacular finishing hole for golfers and patrons alike.

    My Picks

    DK - Above 10k

    Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10400, FD $11700, Y $47, Odds 18/1) - We have a fairly decent field this week, easily seen by the five golfers above 10k of which any can win with ease (especially DJ when he brings his “A” game). However, this week, I think Bryson can do extremely well. He had a great first round during the Masters but fell off a bit, but he still finished T29. He is in great form being in the midst of a 13 made cut streak since last year’s Northern Trust and includes three wins. He has made 2 of 3 cuts at Harbour Town including a 3rd and 4th. Last week’s performance might leave a lot people upset and could go lower owned compared to the others in the 10k range.

    DK - 9k

    Si Woo Kim (DK $9000, FD $10100, Y $34, Odds 33/1) - There is a lot to like in the 9k range, and I expect Cantlay, Furyk and Simpson to be the chalk in this range (all of whom are great for cash). So, I’m looking at the bottom of this range with Si Woo. He is in great form with 3 top 4s and only 1MC in his last 6 starts. He is 2 for 2 at the Heritage including a runner up last year. He is a solid ball striker and has even found some consistency with his putter in his last 5 events.

    DK - 8k

    Ian Poulter (DK $8600, FD $10200, Y $35, Odds 40/1) - Poulter has been riding a wave of goodness since the start of the year, hasn’t missed a cut in 6 starts and has a T3 at WGC-Mexico and T12 at the Masters to show for it. He is 4 of 4 made cuts at Harbour Town including a T7 last year. He plays well on Bermuda and can handle the winds that often plague Harbour Town.

    Byeong Hun An (DK $8200, FD $9800, Y $32, Odds 40/1) - An is an elite ball striker from T2G who has 5 top 20s during his current made cut streak of 19. He has played the Heritage only once but finished T7. Putting is his only Achilles heel, so if he can putt around field average he should be atop the leaderboard on Sunday.

    DK - 7k and Under

    Lucas Glover (DK $7800, FD $9600, Y $33, Odds 50/1) - Another golfer having a good season so far has been Glover. He has 6 top 14s and 2MCs in his last 8 starts. He has made the cut at the Heritage in his last four starts with nothing worse than a T33. He is excellent from T2G and is an elite ball striker.

    Russell Knox (DK $7700, FD $9500, Y $33, Odds 50/1) - Another good ball striker, Knox has been making cuts since the start of the year and has been 9 for 9 including 3 top 18s. He has made the cut in all of his 5 starts at Harbour Town including a runner up in 2016. He has averaged 76.1DK Pts over those five starts.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on Vicehood.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!




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