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JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview & Picks for The Masters 2019

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  • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for The Masters 2019



    JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


    "You don't come to Augusta to find your game. You come here because you've got one." - Gene Sarazen



    PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE MASTERS 2019
    The Course - Augusta National


    Watch this video from Golf Digest from a few years ago and see if this doesn’t get you pumped up for the Masters!

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/liPTS_6sfLs

    IT’S TIME! The first major of the year is upon us and this week we are at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia. Augusta National is a gorgeous par-72 measuring 7435 yards and has four par 3s and four par 5s.


    Hole breakdown is as follows:


    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 1
    Par 4 400-450 4
    Par 4 450-500 4
    Par 4 >500 1
    Par 5 4
    Total 18
    Course Data (2018)



    Course Data by Par (2018)



    Course Stats
    • Par 72
    • 7,435 yards
    • Architect(s) - Bobby Jones with Alister MacKenzie (1933)
    • Greens - 6,486 sq. ft. (average greens), Bentgrass (Stimpmeter 13+, fast)
    • Tees, Fairways & Rough - Ryegrass
    • Difficulty (+0.400 RTP, Ranked 8th of 51 courses played in 2018, +0.853 RTP, 3rd of 50 in 2017, +0.521 RTP, 2nd of 50 in 2016), very difficult
    • 44 sand bunkers
    • 6 water hazards

    Observed Stat Trends - 2018
    • Last year the course played +0.400 strokes RTP, difficult
    • The four par 5s were some of the easiest holes on the course combining for -1.186 strokes RTP and an average BoB% of 38.3%. Although scoring low on the par 5s is important (its how Reed won last year by dominating the par 5s), it will be more important to distinguish yourself by scoring on the par 4s as everyone will be scoring on the par 5s.
    • The one short par 4 (hole 4) was the only par 4 to play under par, barely (-0.071 RTP). The rest of the par 4s all played over par. The opening hole, Tea Olive, played +0.279 RTP while hole 11, White Dogwood, played +0.400 RTP. Not only did these two holes play as the 3rd most difficult and most difficult holes, respectively, last year, but the were ranked in the top 50 most difficult holes on tour last year.
    • All of the par 3s played over par with hole 4, Flowering Crab Apple, being the 2nd most difficult hole on the course last year. Hole 4 was also among the top 50 most difficult holes on tour last year.

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Invitational event with about 84 golfers
    • Field Strength - Very Strong
    • Cut at 50 (plus ties, or within 10 strokes of the leader). Since 2012, cut has ranged between +1 and +7 (avg. +5)
    • Winning scores since 2012 range -18 to -5 (avg. -10.5)
    • Winners since 2012 (in order: Watson, Scott, Watson, Spieth, Willett, Garcia, Reed)

    DK Data 2018
    • Avg Cash Line (GPP - 438.16, Cash - 438.09)
    • Optimal LU - 609 DK Pts @ 49.8k (AVR 12.23)
    • Winning LUs
      • MillyMaker ($20 Buy-in, ME) - 606 DK Pts @ 50k (AVR 12.12)
      • 15k Qtr Jukebox - 592 DK Pts @ 49.9 DK Pts (AVR 11.86)
      • 100k Albatross ($12 Buy-in, SE) - 604 DK Pts @ 49.6k (AVR 12.17)


    Hole Highlights - Amen Corner

    Amen Corner was coined by Sports Illustrated golf writer Herber Warren Wind in 1958 after an eventful and controversy that occurred along the stretch of holes that eventually resulted in Arnold Palmer’s first Masters win. Let’s look at them closely.

    Hole 11 - White Dogwood - Par 4, 505 yards (2018: +0.400 RTP, Rank 1)



    White Dogwood is a long par 4 (the only one over 500 yards) and plays downhill from left to right. Golfers will need a slight fade shot if they want to reach the green. It is well protected by the pond on the left and a strategic bunker placed right center. Wind almost always plays a factor, and it played as the second most difficult hole relative to par last year. Golfers should be happy with a par.

    Hole 12 - Golden Bell - Par 3, 155 yards (2018: +0.107 RTP, Rank 9)



    Golden Bell is the shortest par 3 but is wrought tricky winds which can make club selection very difficult. Rae’s Creek, which traverses in front of the peanut-shaped green, and three bunkers around the green will mess with golfers chances with winning the Masters.

    Hole 13 - Azalea - Par 5, 510 yards (2018: -0.386, Rank 18)



    Azalea is a source of respite as it is reachable in two. A slight draw is necessary on this dogleg left if golfers want a have good position for their second shot onto a well-protected green. Fall short and balls will fall into a tributary of a creek. Go long and balls will find four bunkers protecting the left and rear of the green.

    My Picks

    DK - Above 10k

    Rory McIlroy (DK $11600, FD $12100, Y $47, Odds 7/1) - Rory is top dog for good reason. In the six events he has played since the start of the year, his worst finish was a T6. In seven starts at Augusta, he has amassed 5 top 10s and averages an amazing 7.57 strokes gained total against the field. He is elite in all stat categories of importance this week. I would not surprise me if this was the year Rory completes the career grand slam.

    DK - 9k

    Rickie Fowler (DK $9700, FD $11400, Y $43, Odds 22/1) - Rickie has been on fire since last season and is in the middle of a 17 made cut streak which includes 9 top 12s and a win at the Waste Management. He has made 6 of his last 7 cuts at Augusta and includes 4 top 12s and a runner up last year. He has averaged 5.8 strokes gained total against the field since 2012. He infrequently makes mistakes, he is solid with his approach shots.

    DK - 8k

    Bubba Watson (DK $8800, FD $10200, Y $36, Odds 33/1) - Bubba has found some newfound form in his last six events making each cut and finishing T4 in two events. He is a two-time prior winner at Augusta and has made 6 of 7 cuts. He has averaged 5.5 strokes gained total against the field and I expect no different this year.

    Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8700, FD $10600, Y $33, Odds 40/1) - Similar to Fowler, Hideki is on a made-cut streak of 17 with 5 top 9s since last years Open. Hideki has played the Masters six times and has made a T19 in four stats. I think Hideki might fall under the radar with all of the other golfers around him.

    DK - 7k and Under

    Matt Kuchar (DK $7900, FD $9700, Y $28, Odds 50/1) - Kuchar is in great form (he’s the current FedEx Cup points leader) as he is in the middle of a 12 made cuts streak which includes two wins at Mayakoba and Sony. He has not missed the cut at the Masters seven years straight including 4 top 8s and averages 6.71 strokes gained total against the field.

    Sergio Garcia (DK $7700, FD $1000, Y $33, Odds 40/1)- Despite all of the controversy of last week, Sergio gets a nice price down which is very appealing. He is coming into Augusta on a 6 made cut streak which includes two top 9s. The 2017 Masters champion has missed the cut twice in seven starts but also has finished T12, T8, T17, and T34. Despite an atrocious -10.6 SG:T last year, he still averages +3.97 SG:T over the last 7 starts. He is in much better form coming into this Masters and is solid from T2G.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on Vicehood.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!





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