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JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Valero Texas Open 2019

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  • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview and Picks for the Valero Texas Open 2019




    JAYALGER’S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP


    “Your dreams aren’t as far as you think” - Tony Finau



    PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE VALERO TEXAS OPEN 2019

    Last Tournament Brief Recap - Valspar 2019

    My Picks


    Golfer Position DK Pts Value (Pt/$)*1000
    J.Furyk T18 64.5 6.38
    B.Snedeker T30 55.5 6.60
    N.Watney T37 58.5 8.13
    S.Garcia T54 51.0 5.05
    A.Hadwin MC (T71) 29.0 3.49
    JT.Poston MC (T97) 21.5 2.97

    Cumulative Picks (18-19 Season) - Tournaments - 13, #Picks - 78, Winner - 2, Top 5 - 14 (17.95%), Top 10 - 21 (26.92%), Top 25 - 37 (47.44%), Made Cut - 61 (78.21%). The Course - TPC San Antonio Oaks Course

    With the shuffling of the Players Championship, the PGA Tour now moves to San Antonio, Texas for the Valero Texas Open, the last tournament before the first major of the year, Tha Masters. It has a very distinguished history as it is the third oldest PGA Tour tournament. It was first played in 1922 and has been played in San Antonio since its existence. The current host, TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks Course), has served as the host for the tournament nine years running and is the eighth local course that has served a host. TPC San Antonio Oaks is a par-72 course measuring 7435 yards with four par 3s and four par 5s.


    Hole breakdown is as follows:
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 2
    Par 4 400-450 4
    Par 4 450-500 4
    Par 4 >500 0
    Par 5 4
    Total 18

    Course Data (2018)



    Course Data by Par (2018)



    Course Stats
    • Par 72
    • 7,435 yards
    • Architect(s) - Greg Norman (2010)
    • Greens - 6,400 sq. ft. (average greens), Bermuda/Poa Trivialis and Velvet Bentgrass (Stimpmeter 11.5, average)
    • Tees, Fairways & Rough - Bermuda
    • Difficulty (+0.367 RTP, Ranked 12th of 51 courses played in 2018, +0.853 RTP, 10th of 50 in 2017, +0.206 RTP, 17th of 50 in 2016), slightly difficult
    • 54 sand bunkers
    • 2 water hazards

    Observed Stat Trends - 2018
    • Last year the course played +0.367 strokes RTP, slightly difficult
    • The four par 5s were some of the easiest holes on the course combining for -0.811 strokes RTP and an average BoB% of 32.9%
    • The two par 4s under 400 yards played under par combining for -0.359 RTP. Conversely, the longer par 4s between 450-500 yards were the most difficult holes on the course last year combining for +0.892 RTP. In addition, holes no. 1 and 9 were ranked in the top 50 toughest holes on tour.
    • All of the par 3s played over par as well as all of the par 4s between 400-450 yards.

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Standard event with about 156 golfers
    • Cut at 70 (plus ties). Since 2014, cut has ranged between +1 and +7 (avg. +3)
    • Winning scores since 2014 range -17 to -8 (avg. -12.0)
    • Winners since 2014 (in order: Bowditch, Walker, Hoffman, Chappell, Landry)

    DK Data 2018
    • Avg Cash Line (GPP - 384.68, Cash - 386.11)
    • Optimal LU - 669.0 DK Pts @ 44.6k (AVR 15.00)
    • Winning LUs
      • Qtr Jukebox - 554.50 DK Pts @ 49.1k (AVR 11.29)
      • 40k Albatross ($12 Buy-in, SE) - 542.0 DK Pts @ 49.8k (AVR 10.88)
      • 450k Dogleg ($33 Buy-in, ME) (100k to the 1st) - 578.50 DK Pts @ 50k (AVR 11.57)
    • Cash Line
      • $5 Double Up (SE) Cash line - 351.5 DK Pts


    Hole Highlights

    Hole 4 - Par 4, 481 yards (+0.175 RTP, Rank 3, 2018)



    Although the opening hole is a tough hole to start the tournament (it was the toughest hole on the course playing 0.296 over par), this par 4 also plays tough. This 481-yard hole requires laser precision as the fairway on this hole is the narrowest on the course. Keeping it on the fairway will leave golfers a long iron to a tricky green. There is a large bunker on the left with large oak trees to the back of the green. The green also has a bit of undulation and movement. Par is a good score here as %BoW rates tops 25% last year.

    Hole 17 - Par 4, 347 yards (-0.227 RTP, Rank 16, 2018)



    As briefly described earlier, hole 17 is a drivable, short par 4 with a high risk/reward opportunity. Longer hitters can drive to the green otherwise shorter hitters have the widest fairway on the course to lay up onto. However, to have a good approach shot, golfers will need to reach the upper portion of the fairway but protected by a large bunker along the right side of the fairway. The green is protected by another large sprawling bunker along the front left of the multi-tiered green. 33% of all shots last year on this hole resulted in a birdie or better. Let the birdies fly!

    Hole 18 - Par 5, 591 yards (+0.03 RTP, Rank 11, 2018)



    The closing hole is long, uphill par 5. Off the tee, golfers will have a fairway that slopes from right left. Golfers will have to cautious with their second shot as acreek cuts through the fairway on the left while bunkers protect the right side of the fairway. Golfers will be left with a third shot uphill with a short iron. The green is, however, multi-tiered with three levels and protected by three bunkers in the front left and rear of the green while the creek lines the right side of the green. Only 20% of shots last year resulted in a birdie or better. This hole should provide some excitement come Sunday.



    My Picks

    DK - Above 10k

    Rickie Fowler (DK $11700, FD $12500, Y $48, Odds 10/1) - This week has a significantly weak field with Fowler taking top honors. He has been on a great run, not missing a cut since the 2018 Players Championship. He has notched seven top 8s in that span including a win at the Waste Management. In his last 20 rounds, he has been gaining +2.05 strokes per round compared to the average tour player (courtesy of Datagolf.ca). Interestingly, he has never played the Valero, likely due to scheduling, but can win against this field.

    DK - 9k

    Lucas Glover (DK $9300, FD $10800, Y $42, Odds 33/1) - Like Furyk from a few weeks ago, Glover’s salary is crazy elevated, a reflection of the weak field. However, he has been on a renaissance since the fall swing making 11 of 13 cuts. In those 11 events, he has nothing worse than T17. He did play here in 2015 and missed the cut, but he is playing significantly better now coming into the Valero than in 2015. He is elite T2G and an excellent ball striker.

    DK - 8k

    Ryan Palmer (DK $8400, FD $9800, Y $37, Odds 55/1) - Palmer has had a rocky start to 2019 going 0.500 in six starts but did show some signs of life at the Honda. He has played the Valero every year since 2012 and has only missed one cut and has three top 6s in that span. He is a Texas native (he lives just outside of Dallas) and enjoys this event and should have no problem taking down this course.

    Denny McCarthy (DK $8100, FD $9500, Y $24, Odds 70/1) - McCarthy has been coming into form in his last three events finishing T41 at the Players, T9 at the Valspar and T26 at Corales last week. He has even play this event last year and finished T20. He is long off the tee and can putt. So if he can just his irons just average to the field, he should find himself in contention on Sunday.

    DK - 7k and Under

    Chris Kirk (DK $7100, FD $8700, Y $28, Odds 110/1) - Kirk is tough to roster amid his horrible start to the new year making only 3 cuts in 9 starts. However, he has played very well here making 3 cuts in 4 starts and finishing no worse than T13. He is elite T2G and strong with his irons and is trending up.

    Matt Jones (DK $7200, FD $8900, Y $24)- Also trending up is Matt Jones with 5 straight made cuts. He has five starts at the Valero making 4 of 5 cuts with a best T13 in 2017. He is a solid all-around golfer who putts best on Bermuda. Jones should do well this week.

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on DFSChat.com, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!




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