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JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview & Picks for The U.S. Open 2019


  • JAYALGER'S WEEKLY BEAR TRAP - Preview & Picks for The U.S. Open 2019


    “If I had only one more round to play, I would choose to play it at Pebble Beach. I’ve loved this course from the first time I saw it. It’s possibly the best in the world.” – Jack Nicklaus

    PREVIEW AND PICKS FOR THE US OPEN 2019 The Course - Pebble Beach Golf Links

    The PGA Tour returns to Pebble Beach, CA for the third major of the season. This prestigious (and public!) golf course is set atop the cliffs above the snow white sands of Carmel Beach with unspoiled views of Stillwater Cove and Carmel Bay in the distance. PB has most recently served as host of the US Open in 2010 and 2000. PB has been converted from the par-72 setup for the Pro-Am earlier this year to a championship par-71 measuring 7,040 yards with four par 3s and three par 5s.

    Hole breakdown is as follows:
    Par 3 4
    Par 4 <400 4
    Par 4 400-450 4
    Par 4 450-500 1
    Par 4 >500 2
    Par 5 3
    Total 18
    Course Data (2010)

    Course Data by Par (2010)

    Course Stats
    • Par 71
    • 7,075 yards. Slightly longer than in 2010.
    • Architect(s) - Jack Neville and Douglass Grant (1919)
    • Turf
      • Fairways - Poa/rye
        • Fairways HEAVILY bunkered
        • Narrow landing areas and undulating creating uneven lies and difficult foot placement
        • Several holes with blind tee shots
        • About half of the holes have the cove in play where wind WILL play a role
      • Tees - Poa/rye
      • Rough - Rye
        • Tall and penal. Stay out of the rough
      • Greens - Poa
        • 3500 sq. ft. (TINY!!!)
        • Strongly bunkered
    • Number of sand bunkers - 118
    • Difficulty
      • +3.983 RTP, Ranked 1st of 53 courses played in 2010, VERY DIFFICULT
      • +4.359 RTP, Ranked 1st of 57 courses played in 2000, VERY DIFFICULT

    Observed Stat Trends
    • In 2010, the course played +3.983 strokes RTP, VERY DIFFICULT. There were only two holes that played under par, holes 4 and 6, -0.084 and -0.354 RTP respectively.
    • The three par 5s combined for +0.211 strokes RTP and an average Birdie rate of 24.62%. Hole 6 did attribute 11 of 20 eagles scored.
    • There are four par 4s under 400 yards. It played a combined +0.462 RTP.
    • The five par 4s between 400-450 yards played a combined +1.394 RTP.
    • All of the par 3s played over par combining for +1.063 RTP.
    • The front nine played easier than the back nine, +1.249 and +2.734 RTP, respectively.
    • There were eight holes that were ranked among the 50 toughest holes RTP in 2010. Five of these holes were in the top 10. Hole 17 was ranked 3rd toughest hole RTP in 2010.

    Brief Tournament Information
    • Full field event with 156 golfers
      • Field Strength - VERY STRONG
      • All Top 20 OWGR are in the field including defending champion and 2019 PGA Champion Brooks Koepka (1), Dustin Johnson (2), Tiger Woods (5), 2019 Memorial Champion Patrick Cantlay (8) and current FedExCup leader Matt Kuchar (13)
      • There are 14 amateurs in the field, down from last year’s 20 (highest in the last 30 years)
    • Standard cut of 60plus ties (2000, 2010, 2014-2018)
      • 2018 - (+8)
      • 2017 - (+1)
      • 2016 - (+6)
      • 2015 - (+5)
      • 2014 - (+1)
      • 2010 - (+7)
      • 2000 - (+7)
    • Winners (2000, 2010, 2014-2018)
      • 2018 (Shinnecock) - Brooks Koepka (+1)
      • 2017 (Erin Hills) - Brooks Koepka (-16)
      • 2016 (Oakmont) - Dustin Johnson (-4)
      • 2015 (Chambers Bay) - Jordan Spieth (-5)
      • 2014 (Pinehurst #2) - Martin Kaymer (-9)
      • 2010 (Pebble Beach) - Graeme McDowell (E)
      • 2000 (Pebble Beach) - Tiger Woods (-12)

    Flyover Videos via YouTube
    • From the USGA
    • From Golf Digest as narrated by Jim Nantz

    Really essential, in my opinion, to watch to get an understanding of how golfers will attack the course and the skills required to do so.

    Quotes from Golfers about the Course (courtesy of
    • Tiger Woods, 2010 - “It's poa in the afternoon and they're fast. So you know they're going to be bouncing all over the place and you can't leave yourself a second putt.”
    • Ian Poulter, 2010 - “I think it's a very special golf course, I think they have laid it out amazing, and it's just a joy to play. You could play this golf course every day of the week and never get bored. It's very special.”
    • Graeme McDowell, 2010 - “I thought Mike Davis did a great job with the golf course this week. It rewarded good golf and punished aggressive golf. Punished bad golf. If you hit it in the wrong place you were in trouble around here. If you hit it in the correct places you could make birdies.”

    The Stats to Consider
    • With setup different than the Pro-Am, most golfers will not have played PB under the US Open setup. Thus, current form, like last week, will be more important this week.
    • Look for golfers who gain strokes on Poa.
    • Although Pebble Beach truly demands excellence in all aspects of a golfer’s skill set, they will need to be solid with their irons to get them onto the tiny greens while their short game will be sorely tested to get up and down if they miss or if they are on the wrong side of the pin. Long hitters should club down as length is not required on many of these holes

    Last Tournament (Memorial)

    2018-19 Season

    This Week

    Anyway, I hope that this helps you in your own process to select your golfers for this week. Please leave me any questions, comments, suggestions or any rants and touts you would like to discuss either here on, in our Slack, on twitter @algertorr, or on DK/FD/FDR jayalger. Good luck this week!

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